18 min ago · ETF flows
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive
Sustained inflows could support the bid into the weekly settlement.
All data as of Jul 28
BTC
Bitcoin
Crypto · BTC/USD
−0.54% · 24H
K 線圖 + VWAP / settlement 標記（N10）· 1H —— 以規格交付 dev，本 repo 不實作：docs/asset-forecasting/n10-candle-chart-spec.md
Market conditions
read for today
Spot is holding just above the most-traded price while options price a modest move into Friday.
Trend
Sideways
holding $64.9K low · +0.22% vs VWAP
Momentum
Cooling
RSI(1H) 47 · easing
Volatility
Below average
IV rank 42 / 100
Market condition
Range-bound
mild drift up inside 24H value area
Bitcoin markets
View all (7) markets
Will BTC set a new all-time high in 2026?
by Threshold · settles Dec 31Vol. $2.1M USDO
Will BTC close above $66,000 on Jul 31?
by Threshold · settles Jul 31Vol. $1.2M USDO
Will BTC trade between $64K–$68K on Jul 31?
by Range · settles Jul 31Vol. $880.0K USDO
Will BTC close above $70,000 on Aug 29?
by Threshold · settles Aug 29Vol. $640.0K USDO
Prediction-market consensus
Center from tradable mids of the 7 mutually exclusive Aug 29 range markets, normalized to 100%. Three macro events sit between now and settlement, which is why the curve is flatter than the Jul 31 one. Hatched buckets above $74K trade on thin books.
Market-implied BTC
+4.1% vs spot
Highest-probability range
$66K–70K
50% probability range
$64K–71K
80% probability range
$60K–76K
Center vs 09:00
+$540
4%
8%
19%
34%
20%
10%
5%
<$58K
58–62K
62–66K
66–70K
70–74K ▲
74–78K
>$78K
Volume profile
POC = price with the most traded spot volume in the window: the market's strongest acceptance zone. VAH / VAL bound the value area (~70% of volume). Window follows the selected lookback. Source: Binance spot, last 24H.
Most-traded price · POC
Volume below spot
54.4%
70% value area
$64.9K–65.45K
HVN resistance
$65.3K–65.45K
HVN support
$65.0K–65.15K
65.6K
VAH $65.45K
65.4K
spot $65,223.95
65.2K
POC
65.0K
VAL $64.9K
64.8K
64.6K
Market structure signals
Expected move = the ±1σ range options price by the selected expiry. The put wall and call wall bound where positioning is concentrated; zero gamma is where dealer gamma is estimated to flip sign. Levels are modelled from open interest plus the IV surface; none is a standalone price target. Funding is the 8H perpetual-swap rate — a read on leveraged sentiment, not tied to the selected expiry. Sources: Deribit (Jul 31) and Binance perp.
Volatility pricing · Expected move
±3.1%
$63.2K–67.2K
IV rank · 1Y
42 / 100
ATM IV
48% ann.
Options positioning levels
Leverage & sentiment · Perpetual funding · 8H
Not tied to expiryFunding · 8H
+0.012%
Funding regime
Mild long bias
25Δ skew
-2.1%
Perp basis
+0.04%
Perp OI
$18.4B
BTC timeline
Latest events that may change the read
42 min ago · Options
Open interest clusters near $70k
The strike may become more relevant as expiry approaches.
1 hr ago · Macro
Fed commentary lifts risk assets
A softer rate path may improve appetite across the complex.
3 hr ago · Regulation
Senate advances digital-asset bill
Clearer market structure could reduce the regulatory discount.